Yesterday, inCode Telecom Group Inc. announced its “Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2007”.  Topping the list as the number one trend for wireless operators in 1007 is Social Networking:

“Social Networking Gets Mobilized. Mobility is added to existing Internet business models, services and behaviors, driving traffic for wireless operators. Teens and twenties accustomed to constant connectivity and habit-forming Web sites, such as MySpace and Facebook, lead a wave of membership in mobile social networks. Location social networking including friend and event finder services gain popularity, even in the professional and over-50 segments. Google, Yahoo and Skype are more compelling for users than wireless brands, which are hard-pressed to compete. As customer appetites for social data and video services spike, wireless operators offer more “all you can eat” pricing for high-end data packages. Social networking applications initially are preloaded on many mobile devices sold and later become downloadable.”

On the handset side, inCode predicts that in 2007, “Multi-Function Devices [will] Become Cheaper and More Versatile”.  This includes the introduction of video-capable devices to the masses.  They also predict that location-based services (LBS) and GPS will become mainstream.  According to the article:

“GPS is the location technology of choice for the wireless industry. Handset manufacturers continue to push GPS-enabled handsets as the technology evolves from popular in-car satellite navigation systems like TomTom to a broadly accepted feature in wireless phones. With Nokia having launched its first GPS-enabled handsets in early 2007 and bandwidth available to support new multimedia services, location-based service providers build critical mass. Since there are 10 to 20 times more mobile phones sold than any other consumer electronics device, wireless is a huge driver for GPS adoption. That’s great for users and handset vendors, but the benefit to operators isn’t clear.”

Another of inCode’s predictions is that “Mobile Advertising Breaks Loose:”

“Major brands shift from basic SMS marketing to more sophisticated multimedia advertising. RBC Capital Markets expects mobile marketing revenues to balloon from $45 million in 2005 to $1.5 billion by 2010. With the technological ability to target and measure the effectiveness of mobile advertising, brands are more strategic in their approach. Operators under increasing price pressure set limits on current handset subsidization. Brands take up the slack, subsidize handsets and services for target demographics and take direct ownership of marketing channels. Rich 3G content and video services and accuracy advancements in GPS-based location services deliver further value to brands targeting existing and potential customers in innovative ways.”

This prediction, is already starting to come true, with MVNOs like Virgin Mobile USA and Amp’d Mobile planning to offer discounts to customers for viewing advertisements on their mobile phones.  Cingular Wireless, Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel have also said they’re going to test the concept of mobile advertising.  And, according to CNET, mobile advertising services company, Millennial Media, which was founded by Paul Palmieri, a former Verizon executive recently received $6.3 million in Series A funding.

inCode is on the money with their predictions for 2007.  Tying together the above predictions for 2007 and thinking about the future, I predict that in 2008, mobile operators will further realize the power of social media – extending beyond simply social networking to all forms of social media.  If all goes as I predict, in 2008, Mobile Operators, MVNOs, OEMs, and ISVs will harness the power of social networking, GPS (LBS), and multi-function handsets and incorporate the power of social media, adding applications and web-based services to handsets that add value to consumers.  Services/ applications like Helio’s Buddy Beacon, Dodgeball, etc. will increase.  I predict that large mobile operators and OEMs will begin to pre-load devices with social networking-focused applications that incorporate GPS.  I also believe that mobile advertising will increase and that the value of GPS to mobile operators will be realized in the ability to either charge for LBS social networking services and/or offer interactive mobile advertising via these LBS-enabled social networking applications.

Collaborative and community-based entertainment like YouTube on the go will evolve and continue to be popular.  I also expect that sites that monetize video footage (of, say, news events) that users take on their mobile phones will become increasingly popular….Think sites like: ScoopLive.com, Scoopt.com, and SpyMedia.com.

Search Engine Optimization (SEO) and Social Media Optimisation (SMO) will also play a big role in mobile social networking AND mobile advertising in 2008.  Though, I expect to see real advances in and popularization of this area happening towards the end of the year and into 2009, once mobile GPS and mobile advertising are better established.  I see this happening in several ways:

• When users search for friends, that mobile advertising will be well integrated so that suitable meeting locations and activities will be suggested (e.g. restaurants, coffee shops, stuff to do, sites to see, etc.)
• Based upon users mobile searches, social networking behavior, and text written in the emails they send via mobile phones, mobile LBS and mobile ads will generate new advertising content.

These are my initial thoughts for 2008, and all of them are predicated on inCode’s predictions for 2008 coming true.  If you’ve got any additional predictions for 2008 and beyond, post a comment!

Jimmy Wales from Wikia (a collection of sites users can edit) and Wikipedia (the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit)  spoke at last night’s Social Media Club meeting at CNET‘s office in San Francisco, CA.

Themes from Wales’ talk included several social media lessons he learned from Wikipedia:

• Give users accountability rather than being a gatekeeper of information and you’ll get excellent insights.
• Don’t reprimand users for their bad behavior on line. Instead, praise good users (posts, comments, etc) and validate peers you respect. People crave validation.
• Take a neutral point of view policy. Make sure users know there is no such thing as a “right answer”… just an open discussion and positive effort.

If you’re interested in learning more about the Social Media Club, go to: http://www.socialmediaclub.com.

Thanks to Chris Heuer & team for a great event last night.

I posted this from my Treo 750 (and later edited with bullets and hyperlinks on my mac).

Mobile Blog: Jimmy Wales from Wikia

Post Script: Did you know that Wikipedia:

• Operates with only 5 full time employees? The rest of the folks involved are all volunteers
• Recently raised $1 Million USD at a fundraising event. This amount is equivalent to to total expenditures of Wikipedia last year.
• Has twice the number of visitors than CNN and ABC combined.

Check out the Wikipedia humorous spoof: Uncyclopedia. It is one of the funniest pages on-line and a great example of collaborative humor and social media success.

I know, I know, this blog is meant to be about social media and social networking, but I couldn’t resist writing about another piece of new technology that I know well – the Treo 750, one of the newest GSM Windows Mobile phones on the market.  On January 5th, Palm, Inc. announced the launch of the Treo 750 on Cingular.  This is the second major release from Palm in the last couple of months.

I’ve been using the Treo 750 as my primary phone for the past seven months (I was a business development, developer relations, and marketing consultant at Palm, Inc., so I got early access to the device**).  The Treo 750v has the same hardware as the Treo 750 but the two devices are branded differently because they’re on different carriers (Treo 750v on Vodafone, Treo 750 on Cingular).  Despite having spent significant time working at Palm, I believe that the following review unbiased and fair.  In my opinion, as a power-user of mobile phones, the Treo 750v is the best smartphone on the market, but as with every product, there is always room for improvement. (more…)

On Tuesday, Verizon announced that it will be adding YouTube content to its V Cast line-up, as part of its V Cast Video Service. Yesterday (Nov 29), it announced that it in early December some (not all) Revver content will also be available on the same service.  Users will need to spend $15 a month to access these video services.

$15 seems expensive for the current V Cast video lineup – even with some Revver and You Tube clips.  Keep in mind, Verizon won’t be offering unlimited access to Revver and YouTube clips – just a select number of pre-selected clips.  If I were a Verizon customer, to spend 15 bucks a month, I’d expect to be accessing a whole lot of YouTube, Revver, and a TON of free cached TV shows and movies “on demand” and live streaming TV.  I’d also want to upload and download video from my phone to both services.  In the case of Revver- I’d want to be able to upload my videos from my mobile phone and cash-in on opportunities to make money in the process, which is part of Revver’s business model.  In addition to offering only partial YouTube and Revver content, there is no live TV with V Cast – only video clips and a limited number of shows.  Plus, V Cast only works on some of Verizon’s phones.

Paying $15 a month when you can use your phone as a modem on another mobile network, connecting it to my PC and accessing the entire internet of social media sites wirelessly for FREE sounds like a better bet.

Alternatively, MobiTV, which is available on Cingular in the US for $9.99/ month (also available via Sprint branded as Sprint TV in the US and on Orange in the UK), streams live (well, short delays) TV to your phone. Okay, so you can’t see videos from Revver or YouTube through MobiTV, but you can see the very latest news, weather, etc. Similarly, if you’re on other networks, there’s no shortage of cheap live TV options…. Vodafone offers a great TV service called Vodafone Live.  And another ISV called ROK offers 21 channels of mobile TV and SD cards with movie and TV content pre-loaded on them.

Companies are currently using social media and social networking sites as a platform for evangelizing their own products and/or improving their image.  Even more interesting, is the way that companies (particularly mobile operators and OEMs) are thinking about how social media/social networking can:

• Make their products/services more attractive and usable to customers
• Increase customer numbers/ service subscriptions
• Connect customers to each other – driving data usage (which may be attractive to European Mobile Operators, most of whom do not offer “all you can eat” data plans, like many US-based Mobile Operators)
• and more.

I’ve been independently investigating social media (specifically social networking) for a while now because I believe it will revolutionize computing and human interaction.  In particular, I believe that social networking has the potential to transform the current mobile telecommunications landscape.

I have a passion for mobile, and have worked extensively with mobile OEMs (Nokia, Inc. and Palm, Inc.), mobile operators, and independent software vendors (ISVs).  While none of my jobs in telecommunications have involved investigating social media, my experience working in mobile has given me an understanding of OEMs’ and operators’ priorities.  In my experience, operators are most concerned with driving revenue by increasing:

1. New subscriptions and renewed subscriptions
2. Sales of “sticky” paid-for services that provide recurring revenue and drive consumers reliance on the network, without overburdoning the mobile network.

Mobile OEMs seem most concerned with driving revenue by:

1. Keeping mobile operators happy and increasing sales and carrier subsidies (Note: Mobile operators subsidize mobile phones in an attempt to lure their customers into signing new service contracts.  Operators choose how much they want to subsidise each phone in their catalog, based on a number of factors.  If two phones have similar features but one has a lower price point, the phone with the lower price point is likely to attract more attention from consumers, so OEMs are eager to get the highest possible operator subsidies for their own brand of phones, in an effort to squeeze the competition on price.)
2. Increasing brand recognition of devices by offering “sticky” features/services that appeal to consumers as well as mobile operators
3. Selling software, accessories, and services.

A growing number of players in the mobile space are betting that social networking will satisfy the above objectives, generating revenue and increasing ways that consumers use their mobile phones.  Vodafone and others mobile companies are just starting to talk about their plans to push mobile social networking.  According to a recent Business Week article, Vodafone is in “talks with a number of social-networking sites, and expects deals to be completed during the first quarter of 2007.” Vodafone CEO, Arun Sarin did not say what sort of social networking services Vodafone will offer, but he’s got high hopes for their ability to generate revenue.  The article reports:

Sarin says social networking, mobile advertising, mobile video, and other advanced applications are on the rise. “We expect these services to generate 10% of our revenue within three or four years,” he says. Vodafone generated $29.4 billion in revenue and $6.6 billion in profit during the first half of the year, beating analyst forecasts.

A recent report by Telephia, a leading independent researcher of mobile trends, reports that while most of the mobile social networking applications/sites don’t have a large enough user-base to track, consumers want to access social networking services on their phone.  According to Telephia’s report, almost 1.4 million mobile customers logged onto MySpace using the wireless Web in September 2006 (Note: I couldn’t find this report on Telephia’s site, but several reliable sources mentioned it – Mercury News, Government Technology.). I assume this means that users logged in to MySpace.com using their mobile browsers – as opposed to using the MySpace Mobile software application, which is distributed exclusively by Helio, a relatively small (and new) OEM.  Cingular and BellSouth both offer a service which sends customers a text message when they get posts on their MySpace pages, but the Mobile MySpace application/service is only available on Helio, which demonstrates carriers’ interest in paid-for services associated with social networking.
MySpace access is not the only example of the mobile industry’s interest in social networking.  Location-based (LBS) social networking services are growing.  Helio, who is big on services, now offers a social networking service called Buddy Beacon, which, using GPS, allows a customer to let up to 25 of his/her “buddies” track his/her whereabouts by using another Helio mobile… Seems a bit of a scary proposition to me, but I’m sure it’s got appeal in the teen and college market.  ISVs like Google and Boost Mobile offer other location-based social networking services. Google’s Dodgeball, now available in 22 US cities in the US, allows you to:

• Let your friends know where you are
• Discover friends of friends within a 10 block radius
• Meet potential love matches and be notified when they’re nearby
• Find venue locations and broadcast them to friends

Boost Mobile offers Loopt, which allows you to put yourself on maps accessible to friends via their mobile phone, allowing them to see where you are and what you’re up to and vice versa.

Besides LBS, there’s potential for mobile video social networking.  Another of Telephia reports says that: “three percent of U.S. mobile subscribers, representing nearly eight million consumers, use their cell phones to take personal videos. This adoption rate for mobile video capture doubles to six percent among mobile subscribers who recently purchased a new handset, revealing a rapid upward trend.” Clearly, this has implications for the mobility of all of those video sites I’ve discussed in previous blogs. 

The aforementioned Business Week article on Vodafone’s entry into social networking points out that some analysts are sceptical of social networking’s potential to generate revenue:

Cell phones are still primarily used for personal or one-to-one communication,” writes David Schatsky, president of researcher JupiterKagan, in a report. “Services relying on unique features of the cell phone offer better, though modest, revenue prospects.”

Wireless phone companies have been reluctant to open their networks to third parties. In the past, they have offered proprietary, high-margin services such as text messaging. The Internet offers cheaper, open platforms such as instant messaging and social networking. As the cell phone becomes equipped with increasingly powerful Internet browsers and faster Internet connections, the migration of open Internet standards to the wireless world is all but inevitable (see BusinessWeek.com, 11/3/06, “Cingular: Giving Away the Music Store”).

With companies like Google, proposing that web-based mobile applications like Dodgeball and mobile Gmail should be free to users (using an ad-based model), it may be tough for mobile operators to generate revenue on competitive “charged-for” services.  That said, if a mobile operator, ISV, or OEM is able to offer a new and unique enough social networking service, which enough users adopt:

• It will be possible to make that applicaiton free, given ad-based revenue, and/or
• Users will be willing to pay for it, to avoid ad exposure (which is sure to increase on mobile phones in time).

Either way- there is a future for mobile social networking, but this future may not be led by mobile carriers.  The “walled garden approach” that carriers have embraced for so long, flies in the face of the usefullness of social networking and will be challenged by the likes of Google and other web-based social networking mobile ISVs.  I don’t think that users will accept being inhibited by who they can interact with based upon what mobile network or phone they’re on.

Regardless of what happens, I am exicted to see how the mobile social networking market unfolds- especially:

• Who will lead the mobile social networking game?  Will it be ISVs, OEMs, mobile operators, or a combination of all three?
• Will users want to access social networking services on their mobile phones via stand-alone applications, or will web-based stub apps prove more popular? (This may impact the way that social networking information is delivered to customers via mobile – think about the differences between the use-cases with free web-based email vs. paid-for push email.)
• What is the revenue model?  Will it be ad-supported or subscription based?
• How will the convergence of mobile phones, land-line phones, cable/satellite, DSL/Cable internet influence who wins the social networking game?

Stay tuned to hear my thoughts on these questions in future blogs.  And, if you’re interested in mobile blogging, check out SixApart’s new Vox Mobile application.